Top of the "Mountain"
Academy will giddy-up for cowboy drama
By Jon Chattman
FEBRUARY 17, 2006 - On March 5, the Oscars will hand out a bunch of gold guys to a movie about two homosexual cowboys. Yes, as Kevin Millar might say, look for the Academy to "cowboy up" and reward Ang Lee's "BrokebackMountain" with at least three wins: the coveted Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Having said that, history has proven anything's possible with the Academy Awards. Will "Crash" derail the "Brokeback" bandwagon? Will Felicity Huffman upset Reese Witherspoon? Will two character actors (Philip Seymour Hoffman and Paul Giamatti) finally be rewarded with some gold? We'll shall see. Here's our bold predictions of the winners come Oscar night.
BEST PICTURE
Dubbed a landmark film that will pave the way for future moviemaking, the highly-touted "BrokebackMountain" will easily pick up the Oscar. "Crash" stands the best chance at an upset, but it's not likely. Ditto for "Capote," "Good Night, and Good Luck," and "Munich." "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Capote's" nods were an honor in itself. And, the little seen "Munich" was far from Spielberg's best work. Bottom line: While "Crash" deserves it, Oscar will climb the "Mountain."
BEST ACTOR
Take away Jamie Foxx's win for "Ray" last year, and "Walk the Line's" Joaquin Phoenix would've been a lock. But, Oscar will likely steer clear of a back-to-back victory for a music-themed movie. That said, they won't shy away from awarding an Oscar for another bio-flick. Philip Seymour Hoffman's embodiment of "Capote" will finally land the actor the recognition he's deserved for a decade. Phoenix poses the best threat for an upset, but don't be surprised if "Brokeback's" Heath Ledger or "Good Night's" David Strathairn sneak in albeit it's unlikely. "Hustle & Flow's" Terrence Howard has little chance. The nomination alone has made him a star. Bottom line: It's a three-way dogfight between Hoffman, Phoenix, and Ledger but Hoffman should walk away with it.
BEST ACTRESS
This is a two-horse race between "Transamerica's" Felicity Huffman and "Walk the Line's" Reese Witherspoon. In all likelihood, Witherspoon's flawless performance as June Carter Cash will win out. The Academy may shy away from awarding TV star Huffman with a distinguished film award. That said, they did just that with "Mad About You's" Helen Hunt a decade ago for "As Good as it Gets," so anything's possible. The rest of the nominees don't stand a chance. Dame Judi Dench was terrific in "Mrs. Henderson Presents," but she's already got an Oscar. Ditto for "NorthCounty's" Charlize Theron, who won in this category for "Monster" just two years ago. Lastly, like Howard, Keira Knightley's surprise nomination for "Pride & Prejudice" is a reward in itself.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
"Cinderella Man's" Paul Giamatti will likely win here for his career and past Oscar snubs (respectively "American Splendor" and "Sideways"), but this category is a tough one to call. While he won the Golden Globe, it's not likely "George Clooney" will win for his portrayal in "Syriana." Chances are if the Academy were to reward him, it'd be for co-writing "Good Night." That leaves us with "A History of Violence's" William Hurt, already an Oscar winner, and first-time nominee Matt Dillon for "Crash." In a perfect world, Dillon wins to represent the film's fine cast and his harrowing performance as a racist cop. Bottom line: It's anyone's call, but Giamatti should win although my gut tells me it'll be Hurt.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
"Crash's" Thandie Newton belongs to be on this list, but isn't. As of now "The Constant Gardener's" Rachel Weisz has won nearly every recent award show in this category, but something tells me she won't win the gold guy. Look for "Capote's" Catherine Keener to win here for not only her performance here but her body of work. "Brokeback's" Michelle Williams is the stiffest competition. If there's a "Brokeback" sweep, look for the actress to win here. "North Country's" Frances McDormand, who already has a statue for another Minnesota story- "Fargo," and "Junebug's" Amy Adams, who's nomination alone put her on Hollywood's radar, round out the category. Bottomline: This category stands the best chance at a surprise.
BEST DIRECTOR
"Brokeback's" Ang Lee won just about every pre-Oscar honor. Considering he failed to win in this category for "Sense and Sensibility" and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," the director's a sure thing here. "Capote's" Bennett Miller, "Good Night's" George Clooney, "Crash's" Paul Haggis, and "Munich's" Steven Spielberg don't even come close. Bottom line: No contest.
In brief, the rest of the predictions
Adapted Screenplay: BrokebackMountain
Original Screenplay: Crash
Foreign Language Film: Paradise Now
Animated Film: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-rabbit
Art Direction: Memoirs of a Geisha
Makeup: Star Wars: Episode III
Score: Memoirs of a Geisha
Original Song: Transamerica
Visual Effects: King Kong
Editing: Crash
Cinematography: BrokebackMountain
Costume Design: Memoirs of a Geisha
Documentary Feature: Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Documentary Short: The Death of Kevin Carter
Animated short: One Man Band
Live Action short: The Last Farm
Sound Editing: King Kong
Sound Mixing: King Kong
The Forgotscars: snubbed no more
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