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Brokeback" bandwagon
Predicting this year's Oscar nominations
By Jon Chattman

If all goes as predicted, the 78th Annual Academy Awards will be highlighted by homosexual cowboys, a transsexual, and a man in black. Yes, barring a cinematic miracle, when the Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday morning, Jan. 31, "BrokebackMountain," "Transamerica," and "Walk the Line" will lead the charge. "BrokebackMountain," in particular, is expected to take in the most nods. The controversial film has already swept nearly every single pre-Oscar Awards there are. But, history has proven that there will be many surprises and omissions come nomination morning. With that, this journalist boldly goes where everybody has been before. Here are my predictions for who will pick up an Oscar nod later this month:

Best Picture
BrokebackMountain
Walk the Line
Munich
Good Night, and Good Luck
The Constant Gardener

Could sneak in:
Crash
A History of Violence
Capote
Match Point

Best Actor
David Straithairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
Heath Ledger (BrokebackMountain)
Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)

Could sneak in:
Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale)
Eric Bana (Munich)
Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man)
Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener)

Best Actress
Dame Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Naomi Watts (King Kong)

Could sneak in:
Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale)
Gwyneth Paltrow (Proof)
Ziyi Zhang (Memoris of a Geisha)

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
William Hurt (A History of Violence)
Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Could sneak in:
Ed Harris (A History of Violence)
Terrence Howard (Crash)

Best Supporting Actress
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (BrokebackMountain)
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Shirley McClaine (In Her Shoes)

Could sneak in:
Maria Bello (A History of Violence)
Frances McDormand (North Country)
Thandie Newton (Crash)

Best Director:
David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Woody Allen (Match Point)
Ang Lee (BrokebackMountain)
Fernando Meirelles (The Constant Gardener)
James Mangold (Walk the Line)

Could sneak in:
Steven Spielberg (Munich)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Terrence Malick (The New World)
Peter Jackson (King Kong)
George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck)

Best Original Screenplay
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
The Squid and the Whale
Paradise Now
Match Point

Could sneak in
The New World
Cinderella Man
Syriana
The 40-Year-Old Virgin

Best Adapted Screenplay
Capote
Walk the Line
A History of Violence
BrokebackMountain
The Constant Gardener

Could sneak in
Pride & Prejudice

In brief
Expect "Brokeback Mountain" to lead the pack with at least nine nominations. Look for "Memoirs of a Geisha" to pick up nods for costumes, make up, score, and art direction. "King Kong" should clean up in all technical categories especially sound, sound effecrs editing, and special effects. "The Chronicles of Narnia" will receive a handful of minor nominations, including score and song. "Syriana" is a lock for score and editing nominees. Look for two movie musicals to be shot out completely: "Rent" and "The Producers." The latter, however, may pick up a nod for best original song. Lastly, don't be surprised if "Crash" makes an unlikely big splash. The acclaimed film could be this year's sleeper. It'd be nice if the Academy honored some comedies and comedic performances, but don't expect it. "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" deserves a nod for screenplay, while Toni Collette deserves a shot for "In Her Shoes." Don't bet on it, though. Bet on "Brokeback" and other heavy dramas.